Punchinello’s Chronicles

March 20, 2009

Countdown to 4,000

Filed under: Butterfly Wings — Punchinello @ 11:11 am
Tags: ,

Some people think there’s going to be a light at the end of the tunnel, soon, with respect to the financial markets. Last year the Dow-Jones Industrial Average (DOW) was at 13,941. Today (2/17/09), following the signing of the new stimulus package, it closed at 7,552.

Personally, I think all this is a historic cycle coming into action. The world, and certainly the American public, would have had to pay the piper, so to speak, for decades of over-spending, lack of saving, and disregard for reality. We haven’t. As such, I suspect we won’t see the end of this slide until we approach the 4,000 mark.

February 17, 2008 DOW
13,191

December 30, 2011
12,430

Loss: 5.8%

(Not inflation adjusted)

America is being held hostage by the Federal Reserve, banks and financial institutions, and corrupt politicians whose entire lives are devoted to the single goal of staying in office. Those politicians haven’t the slightest interest in the American public. They have zero interest in fixing anything, and would prefer to have high anxiety and fear running rampant. The more anxiety, the better their chances of re-election.

How long will it be before we the people get really angry about the real cause of our problems: the government! When I started this post, the “recession” was in full swing. Fundamentals showed that the markets are precarious, to say the least. Today, those markets have regained 80+% of their value. Have YOU regained all that value? Or has it been the large investment banks? What about your pension fund, IRA, family wealth and your personal portfolio?

Is the “recession” clearly “over and done with?” After all, an 80% retracement back to the good times of 2007 is pretty impressive. Isn’t it?

June 3, 2008 – Obama nomination victory speech
October 5, 2008 – Bush administration passes TARP bill
January 25, 2009 – Obama inauguration
February 17, 2008 – Obama administration passes second $1-trillion stimulus
February 20, 2009 – Rumors of short-term bank nationalization, denied by administration
February 23, 2009 – Obama introduces “deficit in half by 1 year” (likely means tax increases)
February 25, 2009 – Obama talks to joint session Congress about fixing the economy
February 27, 2009 – Omnibus spending package and new budget revealed
March 2, 2009 – AIG gets 4th bailout, Feds buy Citibank stock
March 4, 2009 – Obama announces Section-8 plan for endangered mortgages
March 5, 2009 – Citibank falls below $1/share, healthcare reform talks begin
March 10, 2009 – Citibank announces first quarter profit
March 12, 2009 – Financial Accounting Standards Board announces mark-to-market change
March 18, 2009 – Housing starts report first upward movement in long time
March 20, 2009 – Markets miss the memo that the recession is over
March 24, 2009 – RTF-like proposal to buy $1-trillion in toxic assets from banks
April 2, 2009 – G20 World Finance meeting to contain international money crisis
April 3, 2009 – DOW up past 8,000 mark, first time since January
April 9, 2009 – First-quarter earnings reports indicate banks made profits
April 17, 2009 – California housing prices stable 3 months, Fed says we’ve hit bottom
April 24, ’09 – Q1 bank and retail accounting changes show companies making profits.
Apr 29, 09 – Fed says it will continue to interfere with all possible tools to help fix economy
Apr 30, 09 – Chrysler announces bankruptcy to qualify for gov’t. bailout money from Fed.
May 4, 09 – Bear rally sends market up 300 points apparently due to insider selling.
May 5, 09 – Rally continues ahead of Fed “stress test” results for banking industry.
May 8, 09 – Fed says biggest banks healthy, just need a little extra capital. Rally continues.
May 20, 09 – Q1 retail down, housing starts down. Fed says some signs of improvement.
May 22, 09 – US dollar rating may drop. Fed says things may still be a little off.
May 29, 09 – USD value drops, oil up, transport and commodities up. GM bankruptcy.
Jun 1, 09 – GM declares bankruptcy. Wall Street apparently rejoices. DOW is up!
Jun 10, 09 – Feds say rate of decline is slowing, unemployment claims slowing.
Jun 12, 09 – Inkspots guitarist Huey Long dies at 105. Analysts predict economic recovery.
Jun 22, 09 – FDA takes control of tobacco, Healthcare reform, World Bank worried
Jul 9, 09 – Obama ratings dropping, next bailout coming, Michael Jackson dies
July 20, 09 – Recession petering out, likely done by Fall. Banks making money like crazy!
Jul 23, 09 – Happy Days Are Here Again! 64th US bank closes. Leading indices all up.
Aug 7, 09 – Bear market rally continues. Losses everywhere less bad than expected.
Aug 13, 09 – Banks, Wall Street, Fed, Ford making money. Unemployment increases
Aug 21, 09 – 80 banks fail – 3500 branches, small banks in peril. 13+% mortgages in peril
Aug 28, 09 – Unemployment up, FDIC says 400+ banks may fail, retail down, markets rally
Sep 2, 09 – Recession is over, green shoots everywhere. Health care for everyone in question.
Sep 9, 09 – Institutional traders push rally. Gold over $1,000
Sep 15, 09 – Fed says recession absolutely over. Definitely. For sure. Really! 9700 peak coming
Sep 17, 09 – Passing through predicted bear rally peak. All fundamentals down, Wall street up.
Sep 22, 09 – High continues, unemployment increases, Wall street ecstatic.
Sep 24, 09 – Insiders take profits, DOW springs leak. “Green shoots” everywhere, presumably.
Oct 2, 09 – Recession over, banks making money, unemployment higher, no problems!
Oct 9, 09 – Alcoa Aluminum singlehandedly saves the US economy. Gold over $1040/oz.
Oct 22, 09 – Foreclosures, unemployment up, retail down, 99 banks closed, Wall Street ecstatic
Oct 24, 09 – NetFlix shares record high, Wall Street cheers. 106 banks now closed, FDIC broke
Oct 30, 09 – US GDP up unexpected 3.5% Banks try to spell “debt,” consumers stop spending
Nov 5, 09 – Published Unemployment near 10%, Central Banks exit emergency “largesse”
Nov 9, 09 – 0% rates, absolutely no loss Fed guarantees, gold at record $1100 on dollar weakness
Nov 17, 09 – Markets totally disconnected from reality, all fundamentals down, WS up.
Nov 27, 09 – Dubai World nears default. DOW 10,500 upper test limit nearly reached.
Dec 24, 09 – Xmas eve Senate vote passes Obamacare. Miractulous Markets ecstatic with debt
Dec 28, 09 – Volume-less high-frequency computer trading sucks away year-end profits
Jan 14, 10 – Haiti 7+ earthquake, higher unemployment, holiday retail down markets up!
Jan 25, 10 – Prop trading regulation proposed, Bernanke reappointment in jeopardy
Jan 29, 10 – Bernanke reconfirmed 2nd term, 70-30, more of the same 4 more years
Feb 22, 10 – Little volume, DOW mostly trading back and forth by computers
Mar 23, 10 – Record $26B pulled from markets, $3B pulled 2/2010. Healthcare nationalized
Apr 13, 10 – 39M on food stamps, negative volume, Euro debt imploding, Markets…up!
May 6, 10 – High-Frequency-Trading causes 1,000 DOW plunge in 15 minutes, by accident.
May 10, 10 – 3/4-trillion Euro to bail out Greece & EC banks. Blank check on spending. Markets up!
July 8, 10 – Machines trading with machines, no volume. Markets +400 -400 with no reality.
Aug 2, 10 – $35-billion leaves equity funds, Robot computers trade with each other.
Aug 12, 10 – Fed will now buy its own debt, no money left for Qualitative Easing v2.0
Sep 9, 10 – $65-B year-to-date small investors have left markets due to HFT scams
Oct 26, 10 – Fed (POMO) buying everything for sale in markets. Mid-term elections 2010.
Nov 4, 10 – Fed announces $600B QE2. Silver $26.73/oz. Markets priced in silver down 29% YTD
Jan 6, 11 – Fed rally continues unabated. 33 weeks of retail investors leaving markets.
Jan 12, 11 – Rep. Gifford shot, Fed buys another $112B in bonds, Australia flooded.
Jan 27, 11 – Fed Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) only game left in town.
Jan 28, 11 – Egypt, Tunisia, Middle East begin riots over inflation and food prices.
Feb 10, 11 – 43M on Food stamps. Dutch to buy (merge with) 219 year old NY Stock Exchange
Mar 16, 11 – 9.0 Japan quake-tsunami and hedge funds run from markets
Apr 12, 11 – Month later, nobody cares about Japan. All markets up. Gold: $1453
Dec 30, 11 – Europe fixed – broke, all summer long. Gold: $1612. Market outflows $192-billion.
12,402
9,955
8,116
7,552
7,365
7,114
7,351
7,063
6,763
6,876
6,595
6,927
7,170
7,487

7,278
7,660
7,978
8,018
8,087
8,131

8,076
8,186
8,168
8,426
8,512
8,575

8,422
8,277
8,500
8,721
8,771
8,799

8,339
8,183
8,848
9,093
9,370
9,398
9,506
9,545

9,281
9,627
9,683
9,784
9,830

9,707
9,484
9,865
10,081

9,972
9,713
10,006
10,227
10,437

10,310
10,520
10,547
10,710

10,197
10,067
10,383
10,889
11,019

10,041
10,785
10,139
10,674
10,320
10,387
11,169
11,444
11,697
11,755
12,008

11, 824
12,229
11,613
12,264
12,430
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